We Know the Nation 2026.
The five key trends shaping the UK’s shopping and retail media landscape in 2026
Welcome to We Know the Nation 2026, Tesco Media’s third annual trends report.
In 2023, we published Shape What Britain Buys, a deep dive into five trends we felt had the potential to transform grocery shopping and retail media in the 12 months to come. A year later, we launched our second report in the series, covering themes ranging from “blended shopping” and retail media measurement through to the rise and rise of challenger brands.
At its core, this series was designed to help our partners understand where the market is headed, enabling them to meet customer needs with confidence. To keep us true to that purpose, We Know the Nation builds on our previous reports, zeroing in on what brands can do to stay one step ahead in a fast-moving world.
And fast‑moving it really is. Take AI, which continues to advance at a pace none of us can ignore. Its influence on media is already significant – but the focus is not on AI in isolation. What matters is how we use it to enhance the customer experience; to make choices clearer, journeys smoother and brand interactions more meaningful. Processes may be evolving, but the overarching goal remains unchanged.
Customers, meanwhile, continue to face a tough economic backdrop. Value has never been so important. Combine that with the fact that shoppers now have more choice than ever, and you end up in an environment where customers are making far more intentional decisions. As a result, brands and retailers need to protect customers’ confidence just as much as their budgets.
This is where the next phase of retail media comes in, and the market is maturing rapidly. What once felt experimental is now a core part of the marketing process, and Tesco Media is embracing its leadership role here. Over the past few years, we’ve built a system in which data, creativity, and effectiveness serve as the foundations of a successful media strategy, with our brightest talent leading the charge.
We’re also writing the future with clients who are braver, sharper, and asking bigger strategic questions than ever before. Marketers are asking “what’s coming next?”, not just “what’s converting to purchase?”. That’s exactly the question that We Know the Nation is designed to answer.
Like its predecessors, this report is based on deep analysis of the behaviours of Clubcard shoppers. And, in analysing those patterns, we’ve seen the emergence of two behavioural lenses.
On one side are the emotional, social, and cultural shifts influencing how people want to live, connect and feel. These we’re grouping under the category of Culture. On the other is an evolution in how people think, decide, and navigate the growing complexity of choice to discover value. That, we’re calling Cognition.
Across both Culture and Cognition, the signals from Clubcard are clear: we live in a nation reshaping its habits and seeking balance, connection, and clarity. Do shoppers still want joy in their basket? Yes – provided it makes sense in their own situation. By bringing data science and creativity together, we can make sense of this unpredictability and help brands show up in ways that feel timely, useful, and human.
This report is our guide to the landscape ahead: honest about the challenges, optimistic about the possibilities, and grounded in the real behaviour of millions of Clubcard households.
Let’s get into it.
Macroeconomic factors shaping customer choices and media habits
As a nation, we are living through a period of economic and social uncertainty. Trust and value are no longer nice-to-haves. They are the price of entry, and customers need clarity to make confident choices. In this landscape, a consistent and reassuring proposition isn’t just good practice. It’s how brands protect customer confidence, build repeat custom and reinforce positive habits over time.
As people become more deliberate about what they choose and where they spend, brands have to work harder to earn attention and reward it. That means creating conditions for discovery and engagement while reliably delivering on core, daily needs. Get either wrong and confidence erodes quickly and customers will look elsewhere.
1. It is within this shift towards more intentional decision-making that our trends have emerged with three macroeconomic forces are shaping how people think, decide and interact with media today. The squeeze continues.
With household income growth remaining modest and everyday costs still elevated, consumers are becoming increasingly mindful about how and where they spend.
2. AI as our guide
An estimated 30% of UK Google searches end at the AI Overview, dramatically impacting website traffic[1].
3. Mobile nation
British adults now spend more time on their phones than in front of their TV sets. The implications for brand building are huge[2].
Tash Whitmey
Managing Director,
Tesco Media and Insight Platform
[1] From apps to AI search: how the UK goes online in 2025 – Ofcom, 10th December 2025
[2] Brits spend more time on their mobiles than watching TV set for the first time - IPA
The 5 trends shaping retail media in 2026.
Culture
How shoppers are reshaping their lives, values, and behaviours in response to their social and economic reality.
Cognition
How shoppers feel, think, decide, and choose in an increasingly complex, information-heavy world.
1. Community Craving
In an era of low trust and uncertainty, customers have come to crave community, credibility, and shared experience.
2. Moderation Nation
Shoppers are becoming more intentioned, seeking a healthier balance and more meaningful pleasures.
3. Moving Mindsets
With the continuous shifting of mental models, brands will prioritise cognitive-based media planning in order to maintain their connection.
4. Discovery Redefined
As grocery shopping becomes smoother and more efficient, the fundamental processes of product discovery will need to evolve.
5. Loyalty+
As the shopper-to-supermarket relationship evolves beyond the transactional, a brand-new era of personalisation will begin to take shape.
Culture
1. Community
Craving.
What’s happening?
Britain’s enduring a prolonged period of pressure. Economic fallout from the cost-of-living crisis continues to sway household decisions, political unrest is fuelling ongoing uncertainty, and public services remain under visible strain. At the same time, AI’s rapid rise is making it harder than ever for shoppers to work out what’s real, credible, and trustworthy.
In short, people are feeling stretched. And so, entirely understandably, many are now seeking out the support of their loved ones, prioritising moments at home, and getting engaged with their local community.
National celebrations
The 80th anniversary of VE Day saw 8.8% more units of scones, jam, and clotted cream sold – around 61,000 items in real terms. During the Lionesses’ Euro 2025 victory, meanwhile, almost half a million customers bought soft drinks in Tesco for the first time that year.
Tapping into the power of shared history, pride, and collective joy, these landmark moments show the importance of engaging with micro-communities across the year.
Zeitgeist trends
Trends born on platforms like TikTok quickly translate into real-world demand. Between 2024 and 2025, Tesco.com saw an 80% increase in searches for “Dubai chocolate”, while “Chicken Wine” (otherwise known as La Vieille Ferme) enjoyed a 54% rise in sales.
In trusted spaces like Tesco, retail becomes the bridge between digital hype and real-life participation – giving shoppers the chance to be part of the cultural conversation in real time.
Localisation
Community identity matters, and shoppers respond to brands that reflect the places, passions, and pride that shape their everyday lives. Regionalised creative – whether through dialect, humour or just by calling out a location – makes people feel recognised.
Three different movements underpinned by the same emotional driver: community, and a growing desire to feel connected to people who share the same values and interests.In short, people are feeling stretched. And so, entirely understandably, many are now seeking out the support of their loved ones, prioritising moments at home, and getting engaged with their local community.
Why this matters for brands
Shoppers no longer want purely transactional relationships; instead, they expect brands to make them feel seen, understood, and connected. Take the results of Edelman’s 2025 Trust Barometer: 73% of people now say their trust in a brand increases if it “authentically reflects today's culture”.
Clearly, credibility is key here. Brands that step into this space with genuine intentions will have the best opportunity to build genuine connections. By creating engaging experiences that foster community, brands can strengthen their identity and create a sense of belonging in an otherwise fragmented nation.
And, crucially, there’s nowhere more trusted than Tesco right now. At The Grocer Gold Awards in 2025, Tesco made it 11 straight wins as Britain’s favourite supermarket, as voted by our customers. For brands, that means Tesco's not just a retailer, but a credible, brand-safe environment: a place where they can meet shoppers as members of a community.
What this means for brand building & sales growth.
Pick the moments that truly matter
Move beyond generic seasonality and identify the cultural, social, and community moments your customers really care about. Major national events like the FIFA World Cup will provide unmissable moments of togetherness, uniting households across age, background and belief.
Create experiences, not just impressions
Use in-store experiential media to turn passive shopping trips into shared experiences. From store-within-a-store takeovers through to live sampling and competitions, experiential activations invite shoppers to step into the world of your brand rather than just pass it by.
Align with your category to create collective moments
When brands unite around shared shopper missions, they make things easier for shoppers and allow more people to get involved. Activations like the “Meat Free Made Easy” event gave committed plant-based shoppers confidence and variety, while simultaneously inviting curious meat-eaters to join the party. The campaign attracted 164,000 new customers, none of whom had shopped plant-based or vegetarian lines in the year prior.
Be dynamic and culturally responsive
Reactive and dynamic media lets brands tap into trends, conversations, and cultural energy in real-time. This shows that brands are listening and actively participating, not just broadcasting from the sidelines . At the launch of its zeitgeist-capturing Dubai Style Chocolate and Tokyo Style Chocolate Matcha Strawberry Bars, for instance, Lindt tapped into both TikTok[3] and relevant retail placements[4].
Localise creative
Tailor creative so that it resonates with your audience, whether that’s through town names and local slang or regional dialects. Doing so will make shoppers feel recognised and reinforce a shared sense of community and belonging.
Tesco Media predicts:
…that experiential retail will become the new baseline, and immersive experiences will no longer be “extra”, but essential signals of authenticity, community engagement, and trust.
[3] Lindt jumps on viral ‘Dubai chocolate’ TikTok trend with pistachio bar – The Grocer, 19th December 2024
[4] Interview: Peter Zehnder on how Lindt turned a viral trend into a global bestseller – The Moodie Davitt Report, 2nd June 2025
2. Moderation
Nation.
What’s happening?
After years of economic pressure, shoppers are starting to seek out more affordable lifestyle boosts. In tandem, a growing number are prioritising health and wellbeing over excess, signalling a shift from a “treat yourself” mentality to more of a “treat yourself better” one. Shoppers are reframing indulgence around micro-treats and milestones rather than full-scale blowouts.
This trend is at its most visible in five specific areas.
“Better for you” snacks
Customers are trending towards healthier options in their snacking purchases. Sales of wholesome snack bars have risen by 9% in the past year.
Protein-based products have also seen double-digit spend and volume growth, while popcorn and healthier crisps have seen similar increases.
Low- and no-alcohol
Moderation is preferred to complete abstinence. Low and no-alcohol (L&N) beers and spirits are enjoying penetration gains, while their respective categories are seeing decline.
Volume sales of L&N beers and ciders outperformed alcoholic equivalents by 11.1%, with L&N spirits doing the same by 10.9%.
At-home dining
“Fakeaways” and at-home dining continue to grow, seen as affordable alternatives to a big night out.
Restaurant brand unit sales are outgrowing fresh and grocery by 2.2%, with 36.8% of Tesco shoppers purchasing in the past year. Tesco Finest Dine in Meal Deals outperformed chilled ready meals by 10.5%
Micro-celebrations
From milestones to moments, shoppers are shifting towards smaller, more regular celebrations; party food has grown by 3.4% year-on-year, with sales of ready-to-drink alcohol rising by 5.1% over the same period.
In the bakery aisle, seasonal cakes are now outperforming regular ones.
Online
On the digital side, shoppers are exhibiting more considered behaviours. The number of unique visits to Tesco.com has grown by 5%, page views by 27%, and search volumes 11%[5].
As well as Tesco’s growing online share, this also speaks to increased use of the Clubcard app over the desktop site.
While shoppers are shifting towards lifestyle moderation and healthier choices, though, cost remains an issue. One in three are embracing whole foods, more than half are unwilling to pay more for these products. The direction of travel may be clear, but so too is the Intention-Action gap.
Why this matters for brands
More than anything else, Moderation Nation is about rational mindsets. Shoppers are actively evaluating their options, weighing up permissible treats and the feel-good payoff against their disposable income. If brands want to win, they’ll need to help customers make smarter, more rewarding choices.
What this means for brand building & sales growth.
Prime, without overwhelming
Longer-dwell formats and high-attention placements like online video work hardest when looking to prime shoppers. At this point, customers tend to be exploring and comparing options before adding to basket, making it the perfect time to introduce your brand.
Map the year’s relevant micro-moments out
Beyond the big cultural tentpoles, identify the smaller nudges where an affordable boost will enhance the experience. Think about events like Pancake Day, payday weekends, and Eurovision, and look to build more consistent media activations around them.
Build audiences around moderation mindsets
Tesco’s health-leaning segments (Wellbeing Focused and Variety Hunters) can be further refined, allowing you to engage with the likes of L&N drinkers, healthier snackers, and hosting households.
Use navigational media
Help people find the healthier or lighter options in your portfolio. Guide them through the category with clear, confidence-building messages.
Partner with trade teams early
Micro celebrations will be a key battleground for brands in 2026, and different pack sizes and subtle upgrades will become genuine category drivers. Tap into trade team expertise sooner rather than later to capitalise on that.
Measure the incremental impact of tesco.com
As incrementality testing continues to mature through 2026, it’s a good time to start tracking the contribution of online media towards incremental sales and brand effects.
Tesco Media predicts:
…that by late 2026, moderation will become more mainstream. Single-serve indulgence will be one of the fastest growing formats, while low- and no- options will grow well beyond the Dry January rush.
[5] Tesco Analysis: Nov 2025 Year-on-Year
Cognition
3. Moving
Mindsets.
What’s happening?
As shoppers, we tend to be creatures of habit, taking shortcuts that save us time and money. But that’s only part of the story. Even on a single trip to the supermarket, we’ll shift through different moods and emotions based on what we’re buying, how rushed we are, and what’s going on elsewhere in our life.
Put simply, shopping is about much more than just ticking things off a list. Last year, Tesco Media’s Moving Mindsets research revealed that more than two-thirds of customers (71%) like discovering new brands when shopping. Importantly, an almost identical number also make their final decisions about exactly what to buy while they’re shopping, creating a major opportunity for brands to tap into.
Moving Mindsets identified seven distinct shopper mindsets, split into two camps.
Functional Mindsets
Where shoppers are following the plan, in a rush, or distracted and overloaded. When they’re in a Functional Mindset, shoppers are task-focused, meaning that they’re not looking to discover new products yet
Emotive Mindsets
Where shoppers are open to ideas, seeking rewards, hunting for bargains, or shopping for a social occasion. Here, customers are actively open to inspiration and willing to explore new brands.
Naturally, these moods and mindsets don’t remain static. 80% of shoppers will shift mindset at least once, with the average person covering 2.5 mental modes per product. And customers drift from Functional to Emotive moods too, meaning that even the most focused shopper can still be swayed.
Why this matters for brands
At the launch of IPA Touchpoints 2025, advertising legend Rory Sutherland challenged brands and media planners to rethink how they develop their strategies: “Don’t try to change the world,” he said. “Change how people see the world… start with how they live, not just what they watch[6].”
Despite the common assumption that only certain “types” of shoppers are open to novelty, the figures tell a different story. Per Moving Mindsets, 44% of shoppers in a rush still buy something new, virtually identical to the number of “meticulous planners” who do the same. And bargain hunters, who typically scrutinise their choices, buy new products at a strikingly similar rate (67%) to overloaded shoppers (70%).
What does this tell us? That openness to new products isn’t tethered to traditional shopper stereotypes, but to the mental modes that people move through.
A rushed shopper might grab something new out of convenience; a planner might slot a new item into their well-defined mission; a bargain hunter might be lured by value. Whatever the scenario, the point remains the same: different mindsets create different pathways to discovery. Brands that understand that – and activate against those shifting states – will earn more opportunities to win.
What this means for brand building & sales growth.
Prime, without overwhelming
Longer-dwell formats and high-attention placements like online video work hardest when looking to prime shoppers. At this point, customers tend to be exploring and comparing options before adding to basket, making it the perfect time to introduce your brand.
Use mindsets to understand decisions
Their different mental modes influence how consumers make decisions. Use those Emotive mindsets to inform your brand strategy.
Tailor your campaigns around mindset fluency
Remember that mindsets don’t remain static during a shop. Build in contingencies to keep pace with customers as they shift from Functional to Emotive.
Use mindset insights to shape your activation strategy
Shoppers tend to follow specific patterns based on their mindset. Emotive customers over-index in convenience and online across health, beauty, wellness, beer, wine, spirits, grocery and impulse categories, for instance.
Plan for pre- and during shopping mindsets
More than half of shoppers discover new products before they shop, and shopper mindsets are more Emotive and open to discovery during a trip.
Tesco Media predicts:
…that cognitive-based media planning will become the default standard for a growing number of advertisers. Non-endemic brands in particular will embrace mindsets as a way to appeal to shoppers outside of their fixed routines.
4. Discovery
Redefined.
What’s happening?
Online grocery has removed the friction from our shop. Saved lists, “buy it again” buttons, and habitual missions are commonplace. Efficiency is everywhere. At the same time, a new challenge is emerging: the easier that shopping becomes, the more likely it is that customers fall back on the same old repertoire. Left unchecked, that has real implications for brand discovery.
Discovery isn’t doomed, though; it’s just being redefined. Customers are still highly receptive to new products, but relevance and context are now more important than ever.
Take Birra Moretti’s recent partnership with Tesco Real Food. By placing the beer alongside Italian food and recipes, the campaign helped to reinforce a simple but powerful idea: this is a brand that belongs with Italian cooking. That focus on relevance worked, too. Shoppers who saw the campaign were 28% more likely to associate Moretti with Italian food, rising to 60% amongst those who saw it more than once.
Supporting research only helps to prove the growing importance of relevance when it comes to discovery - even for non-endemic brands. 70% of Tesco shoppers tell us that they’d be receptive to ads for streaming services in the snack aisle, 68% to ads for holidays by suncream, and 59% to kitchen manufacturers alongside cooking ingredients. Overall, 78% of Tesco shoppers say that non-endemic ads make sense in the grocery environment.
Crucially, this isn’t just about attitudes. Every year, 1.5 million Tesco shoppers research online before buying in-store. And, while browsing-focused ad placements only account for 11% of Tesco.com visits, they’re driving a 33% year-on-year increase in basket adds.
What does this tell us? Two things. Firstly, customers are open to discovery. By researching online before buying in-store, shoppers are intentionally exploring. Secondly, browsing placements work because the shoppers who click through to them are proactively on the hunt for inspiration. Simply, discovery hasn’t gone away. It’s just happening differently.
Why this matters for brands
Shopping may be getting faster and more streamlined, but that doesn’t mean people have stopped noticing new things. Today, though, grabbing their attention also means giving them a reason to care.
For brand teams, the implications here are clear: relying on a single channel is no longer enough. As the shopping journey itself becomes narrower, brands need to work to widen it: not by adding friction, but by injecting relevance, surprise, and inspiration.
What this means for brand building & sales growth.
Use high-attention formats to interrupt routine
Homepage video, immersive inspiration hubs, and premium placements are great ways to reignite curiosity.
Reinvent the aisle with in-store theatre
Store-within-a-store experiences, sampling, and experiential displays make for memorable discovery moments.
Leverage relevant contextual storytelling
Recipes and lifestyle content help shoppers imagine products in real life.
Cross-category surprise aids customer discovery
When they’re unexpected, cross-category placements introduce an element of surprise that can help to snap shoppers out of routine.
Tap into up-and-coming activation channels
Seasonal hubs, thematic displays, and newness edits are emerging battlegrounds for discovery-led growth.
Tesco Media predicts:
…that category boundaries will blur as cross-context discovery grows, with brands showing up in surprising but relevant locations.
5. Loyalty+.
What’s happening?
Clubcard has been wildly successful in driving shopper loyalty through greater price and promotional incentives. Now, though, we’re entering the next era: one of personalised shopping experiences where customers are seeking more relevance, We only have to look to the world’s largest media engines such as Netflix to see this, with 80% of that platform’s streaming consumption coming from personalised content recommendations[7].
Points and other reward mechanisms will always matter, of course, but we’re shifting to a world in which brands also need to engage with shoppers based on their long-term behaviours and habits. Why? Because the relationship between the two is now fundamentally evolving, moving beyond price and into something much deeper; a dialogue built on value, trust, and confidence.
Crucially, advances in data science and ad tech mean that the opportunities for brands to continue that dialogue have never been more abundant. They can deliver subtle prompts and reminders that make shopping easier, as exemplified by Tesco and Unilever’s award-winning Smart Stock solution. They can create predictive audiences that help them understand what customers will buy next, whether they’re about to lapse, and even when not to engage with them.
Ultimately, steps like these help to turn CRM and loyalty programmes into a genuine helping hand for customers, balancing out discovery, habit, and incentives. They give brands the chance to speak to specific shoppers’ needs like helping people eat more healthily, making their weekly budget work harder, or catering for guests. This lends itself to communication that eases cognitive load for shoppers in different contexts (discovery or functional) and reassures them their choice is a positive one.
Why this matters for brands
At a time when shoppers have more choice about retailers and brands than ever, the need to find new and innovate ways to retain customers has never been greater.
In turn, the value driven by personalisation and relevance is coming to speak for itself. Customers receiving personalised experiences are 1.8x more likely to pay a premium and 3.7x more likely to buy more than planned[8]. We also see that 80% of customers prefer brands that offer personalised experience, going on to spend 50% more with them[9].
By creating deeper customer relationships that go beyond price and promotional incentives to deliver more relevant, curated, and additive shopper experiences, retailers and brands can offer greater value to shoppers that keeps them returning.
What this means for brand building & sales growth.
Personalisation is now an intrinsic part of your media plan
Think it a targeting tactic: a way to make your comms more relevant. Just as they currently think about the “optimal mix of channels”, planners will also need to think about how to build content relevance into that calculation. Getting this balancing act right will be the biggest challenge they face over the next year.
Embrace AI to reduce manual effort
Adding more creative pressures doesn’t have to mean adding resource. AI tools like Tesco Media’s own Creative Studio can alleviate additional creative pressures.
Tesco Media predicts:
…that media budgets will become more fluid, with spend flowing between the cost of media placements and more personalised content.
[7] This is how Netflix's top-secret recommendation system works – Wired, 22nd August 2017
[8] Gartner CX Research – 3rd June 2025
[9] Unlocking customer growth: Driving high value actions through personalization and retail media – Deloitte
Key takeaways for brand building in 2026.
1.
To build trust and credibility, deliver meaningful experiences that tap into national and local culture.
2.
From moderation to mini milestones, plan your media activities to align with changing shopper priorities.
3.
Consider how customers shift between Emotive and Functional decisions before setting your channel plans
4.
Increasingly, brands will show up in surprising but relevant contexts.
...and if this trajectory continues, ‘out of category’ might just become its own category altogether.
5.
Reimagine relevance through Personalisation: supercharging performance through smarter activations.